The provocative emergence of prediction markets

Prediction markets are rapidly evolving from a niche concept into a mechanism for price discovery, risk transfer and capital allocation. As institutional participation grows and new use cases emerge - from elections and economic indicators to AI compute and commercial risk - their relevance to mainstream financial markets is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

This session explores whether prediction markets represent a genuinely new asset class or the next evolution of market infrastructure, or indeed both. We'll discuss their role alongside traditional derivatives and insurance markets, implications for exchanges, clearing houses, custodians and regulators, and whether market implied probabilities could become trusted reference benchmarks for pricing, hedging and investment decisions across the wider economy.